Israel-Iran: Is it urgent to stockpile gasoline in anticipation of a price surge?
The rise in oil prices, triggered by Israel's attack on Iran, is having an impact on the pumps in France, but remains limited for the time being. However, oil markets are highly sensitive to risk perceptions.
Wars around the world are having an impact on Europeans' wallets, and in particular, the price of gasoline at the pump. This is because, as soon as Israel launched an offensive in Iran on the night of Thursday, June 12th to Friday, June 13th, the oil markets reacted immediately: the price of a barrel jumped $10 in a matter of hours. This should translate into a four- to five-cent increase in the price of gasoline in France, starting today.
" This rapid reaction is explained by the extreme sensitivity of the oil market to any threat to global supply ," explains Olivier Gantois, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries (UFIP), especially in a region that accounts for nearly 40% of global oil production. The problem is that markets are stubborn, reacting not only to the reality of the facts, but above all to the perception of risk. " Even if war has not (yet) broken out on a large scale, the mere possibility of an escalation is enough to drive up prices ," observes Nader Itayim, hydrocarbon specialist for the Dubai-based Argus Media agency.
No need to panic, however. Olivier Gantois and Nader Itayim agree: no major power (the United States, Iran , Saudi Arabia, Russia, China) wants a regional conflagration that would cause a risk of shortages and a sustained surge in prices. At this time, global economic interests are converging towards stable supply.
Moreover, the strategy of both sides has so far been to target secondary energy infrastructure (refineries, gas processing plants), and not crude oil production or export facilities. The objective seems to be to limit the impact to the domestic market (in Iran or Israel ), without affecting global supplies. "As long as the strikes do not target export terminals or major oil fields, the effect on the global market remains contained," summarizes Nader Itayim.
In reality, the real danger would be a significant escalation in production and exports, which could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the global market (half of Iran's current exports). Even in the event of such a shock, the price increase could be temporary, explains Nader Itayim. " OPEC+ has 4 to 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, mainly in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. In the event of an Iranian shortage, these countries could compensate in the short term," predicts the market expert.
In summary, the price increases at the pump are, at this time, limited and could remain temporary if the situation does not escalate. For the most anxious motorists, it is permitted to stockpile fuel as long as no shortage is declared and no prefectural decree prohibits it. However, this practice is strictly regulated.
A decree of July 1, 2004, stipulates that an individual may store fuel in closed and transportable containers, provided that each container does not exceed 50 liters and that the total volume stored per floor, for the same family or business, remains less than 120 liters. The storage location is also regulated: it is prohibited to store fuel in attics, on balconies or terraces, as well as in common areas of buildings that are not specifically provided for this purpose.
lefigaro
