Travel Stock Carnage and Our New – Lower – Forecasts

The sweeping new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump have raised the risk of recession and the response from financial markets was swift, with a sharp decline Thursday in shares of travel companies, as measured by the Skift Travel 200.

Because the U.S. recession and global slowdown risks are higher than at the start of the year, Skift Research is lowering its outlook for global travel. We now forecast 2% to 5% travel industry growth in 2025, down from our forecast at the start of the year for 6% to 9% growth.

The S&P 500 plunged 4.8% Thursday on fears that higher than anticipated tariffs could spark a global recession. Travel stocks fared even worse, according to the Skift Travel 200, our proprietary index that measures the performance of the largest publicly traded travel companies in the world.

The ST 200 fell by 5.0%, but it was buoyed by global stocks in o