Airline Carbon Credits Are Running Out – It’s a $17 Billion Problem

A severe shortage of eligible carbon credits threatens the airline industry's ability to comply with the United Nations’ CORSIA framework for controlling emissions, with only one country, Guyana, currently selling approved offsets.

But Guyana has just 16 million tonnes worth, while airlines need an estimated 236 million tonnes for the scheme's first phase that covers 2024-2026 emissions, according to IATA.

With credits trading at around $27 per tonne and forecast to hit $35 because of the scarcity, the industry faces a potential bill ranging from $4 billion to over $6 billion.

The cost could climb even higher. Airlines that fail to offset their emissions face fines of up to $100 per tonne in some countries, nearly three times the current credit price.

At that rate, non-compliance could cost the industry up to $17.5 billion, turning the credit shortage from a costly headache into a major financial hit.

The CORSIA deal w