Global tourism is expected to grow by 2025, but the U.S. faces a drop in international visitors: What are the reasons behind this?

According to the World Tourism Barometer 2025, published by UN Tourism, more than 300 million tourists traveled internationally during the first quarter of this year , representing an increase of 14 million compared to the same period in 2024.

The entity notes that this performance was achieved despite the sector facing a series of geopolitical and trade tensions , as well as high inflation in tourism and travel-related services.

Europe, for example, welcomed 125 million international tourists in the first three months of the year, 2 percent more than in the first quarter of 2024. In Asia and the Pacific, arrivals increased by 12 percent.

Among the notable destinations is Spain, which, according to the National Statistics Institute, reached a record number of international tourist arrivals with 55.5 million visitors through July , representing a 7.2 percent increase. Japan, meanwhile, had 21.51 million visitors in the first half of the year and, if the trend continues, could reach 40 million.

The airline sector has also recorded positive results. According to IATA, demand for international flights grew 8 percent between January and March 2025 , compared to the same period the previous year.

However, this growth trend has not been replicated in all destinations. The United States, for example, has reported a decline in foreign visitor arrivals, and projections indicate that international tourist spending will decline this year.

Although the analysis firm Tourism Economics projected a 9 percent increase in international visitor arrivals to the United States in December 2024, the current projection estimates an 8.2 percent decline, driven in part by a reduction in Canadian tourists.

The same was true for the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), which initially projected a 6.5 percent increase through 2024. However, preliminary NTTO figures show that overseas arrivals fell 3.1 percent in July and are down 1.6 percent year-to-date (YTD) , driven by declines in Western Europe and Asia.

Likewise, visits from Canada continue to decline, with a 25.2 percent drop in YDT, including a 37 percent drop in land arrivals in July alone.

This decline in Canadian tourism is expected to primarily affect cities such as Seattle, Portland, and Detroit. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, new international arrivals data for March 2025 reveal a marked and widespread decline in inbound tourism from several major source markets:

In contrast, Mexico has been one of the few countries to show an increase in tourists visiting the United States.

The WTTC notes that by 2024, 90 percent of tourism spending in the country will come from domestic travel , with Americans vacationing within the country. However, this dependence on domestic tourism shows that the international market is losing ground.

The figures are worrying because, although the 72.4 million international visitors to the United States in 2024 were still below the 79.4 million recorded in 2019, the trend since 2020 had been one of steady growth.

On the other hand, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) announced a few months ago that the United States is expected to lose nearly $12.5 billion in international visitor spending this year.

“International visitor spending in the U.S. is projected to fall by just under $169 billion in 2025, down from $181 billion in 2024. This significant shortfall represents a 22.5 percent decline from the previous peak,” the agency said.

The WTTC added that this loss will not only affect the tourism industry, but will also represent a blow to the country's economy, impacting local communities, jobs, and businesses.

The WTTC and Oxford Economics study concludes that, of the 184 economies analyzed, the United States is the only country where international visitor spending is expected to decline in 2025.

Julia Simpson, president and CEO of the WTTC, asserted that these estimates should serve as a call to the U.S. government to rethink the direction of this industry. “ There is no lack of demand, but rather a lack of action. While other countries are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is hanging up the 'closed' sign,” she asserted.

According to the Congressional Research Service, factors affecting the arrival of foreign visitors to the United States include longer wait times for visa interviews, stricter immigration and border policies, potential tariffs, the value of the dollar , and travel restrictions imposed on certain countries.

Claudia Matheus, an immigration attorney and general manager of Visas Gómez & Asociados, says many travelers complain about the long wait times and complex visa procedures. She also points out that some applicants are very fearful when beginning the process. However, she emphasizes that the Embassy has been streamlining procedures.

“The Trump administration's policies and statements have contributed to a growing wave of negative sentiment toward the U.S. among potential international travelers. Enhanced border security measures and visible immigration enforcement actions are heightening concerns. These factors, combined with a strong U.S. dollar, are creating additional barriers for those considering traveling to the United States ,” says Oxford Economics.

Added to this is the new $250 fee, known as the Visa Integrity Fee , which will go into effect on October 1 and will apply to countries without visa exemptions, such as Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina. This means that tourists interested in visiting the US will have to pay $435 (approximately 1,740,000 Colombian pesos).

Regarding stricter border policies, Matheus explains that when presenting oneself at air, sea, or land immigration points, it is necessary to have clear reasons and documentation to support the true purpose of the visit.

And he warns that the more complex the regulations become, the more difficult it will be for travelers to access documents like visas , which could lead to a drop in the number of international visitors.

"People with greater purchasing power in our country will prefer to go to other destinations like Europe or Asia, where they won't encounter so many obstacles and the entry requirements aren't as demanding ," he says.

For his part, Eduardo Pastrana, a professor at the Pontifical Javeriana University in Bogotá, affiliated with the Faculty of Political Science and International Relations, argues that the increase in conditions, the denial of visas, and the treatment given to people of certain nationalities "border on discrimination and abuse."

“The current president resorts to threats and blackmail. Many experts have compared his foreign policy to a mafia-like policy, which has broken with the principles of multilateralism. This has had a negative impact on his image abroad ,” Pastrana adds.

David Castrillón-Kerrigán, a professor and researcher at the Externado University of Colombia, agrees with this perspective. He states that the reputational aspect has changed dramatically so far in 2025. “With the Trump administration, an openly anti-immigrant, anti-foreigner discourse has been adopted, which makes the United States a less attractive place for international visitors,” he explains.

He adds that, although drops in the dollar's value have been reported, immigration policies are essential to understanding the situation. Furthermore, they affect not only migrants but also students, for whom, for example, it is increasingly difficult to obtain a visa.

According to Castrillón-Kerrigán, the impact falls not primarily on the national economy, but rather on the communities that depend on tourism.

“While other countries are making strong progress, the U.S. is falling behind. Relying on domestic travelers may have kept the industry afloat during the pandemic, but without a bold international recovery plan, the world's largest travel and tourism economy risks falling even further behind ,” the WTTC concludes.

ANGIE RODRÍGUEZ - TRAVEL EDITORIAL - @ANGS0614